Melbourne 2012: Pre-Test Prognostications

You might think, given the quantity of column inches devoted to the fast bowling rotation policy and the question mark over Michael Clarke's hamstring, there's not much that can be added to what's already out there, but as I set off around the morning lap around town last Friday I devoted a fair bit of thought to these matters, and though it's close to a week later I'm still inclined to have a go at transferring those thoughts into digital data.

Now, I should make it clear from the start that I don't have an issue with the rotation policy, arbitrary and inconsistent as it would seem to be. That inconsistency, by the way, is largely an issue because there seems to be one rule for the trundlers and another for the willow-wielders.

But we already knew that, didn't we? As Freddie Trueman was wont to remark the last bowler to receive a knighthood was Sir Francis Drake. That's not actually true either, but the astute reader will catch my drift.

So, predictably, Starc makes way for Bird to make his debut, and a bit over three hours before the start of the Boxing Day Test a squiz at the ABC News website has Clarke 'positive' about Boxing Day Test.

So let's tick all the boxes beside the Clarke will play argument.

He's the captain, so he gets to decide his own fate, having watched while Ponting did the same thing. Check.

He's a batsman. Say no more. Check.

There's a chance he'll pass Punter's record for the number of runs scored in a calendar year if he plays, and there's an outside chance he can run down Mohammad Yousuf's record number of runs in a calendar year. He'll need a triple century to do it (or perhaps a double and a single) to do it, which would effectively rule out any niggling questions about his hammie if he managed to do it.

Along the way, even if he doesn't reach an aggregate of 1789 for 2012, he's sitting on 1489, and may well pass Ponting's 1503 from 2003 and 1544 from 2005, Tendulkar's 1562 from 2010, Graham Smith's 1656 from 2008, and possibly Viv Richards' 1710 from 1976.

So there are records out there that might be rewritten. Check.

And there's the question of whether Watto is the right man to fill in the captaincy if Pup doesn't play. See He's the captain above. Check.

But let's pause for a moment and consider what happens if he does play, scores that triple century and does the hammie again, ruling him out of India and The Ashes. Worth the risk?

From where I'm sitting the whole chamozzle is the result of long standing issues that run all the way back to that fateful morning in 2005 when McGrath trod on the cricket ball, turned his ankle and lost us The Ashes.

You might think that's drawing a long bow, but stop for a moment and consider what ensued out of that loss.

First, we had a whole slew of retirements that were postponed until after we got the urn back in 2007. Virtually every member of that 2005 side played on until things were put right, and when you're looking at the who else could do the job as skipper bit today question, the first thing you note is the absence of established senior players apart from Messrs Clarke and Hussey.

Then, when we'd got the urn back we promptly yielded it again in 2009, with the Mitchell Johnson issue influencing team selection (we might need Watto to bowl, so how do we fit him in the eleven? Well, I guess he has to open) and subsequent desire on Ponting's part to go over and bring the thing back again.

The result of all that is a batting order where One, Two and Three are still finding their feet, and while we've possibly got an adequate substitute waiting in the wings the uncertainty about the top means you might be tempted to play it sort of safe by giving Pup a run.

Actually, if you take the building up the stocks argument that is used to justify rotating the quicks, Clarke should not play. Give Khawaja the run and spell Hussey for Sydney so either Khawaja gets a second go or Doolan gets a guernsey to see how he looks.

After all, Starc gets rested to make sure he's fit for India and England, and slots into a pace battery that reads (at the moment, fully fit) Siddle, Starc, Johnson, Bird, Watson with Pattinson, Cummins, Hilfenhaus, Hastings and any number of other contenders lurking on the fringes waiting for a chance to prove their fitness.

I'm fairly upbeat about getting a strong attack out of that bunch, a collective of seven to nine bowlers who can be mixed and matched without losing too much.

But when it comes to the batting, no, we have to play Clarke (or Ponting or Hussey, take your pick, the name's not important, it's the principle) because he's the best we've got for that job even if he's got a question mark over fitness, form or whatever.

I recently heard someone ask what happened to South Australia's Callum Ferguson, who seemed, at one point, to be the next cab off the batting rank. Well, it's obvious, isn't it? He might have been scoring runs at the time but we don't do rotations as far as the batting's concerned, because batsmen are less likely to break down...

But it is, and arguably has always been, a batsman's game…