A squad for Melbourne

They're announcing the squad for Melbourne later today, so I guess it's time to dust off the old crystal ball and apply a bit of Primary Schools' selection thinking in an attempt to guess a possible outcome, so let's see how close we go.

The starting point is, I guess, the twelve from Hobart, and the first question concerns omissions. Given the players who are looming on the horizon you might be inclined to draw a line through both Hughes and Starc (Watson for Hughes, Harris for Starc) and leave it at that, but there are other questions that need to be considered, so it's a case (at least it's a case from where I'm sitting) of sorry Phillip, hang on a bit Mitchell but don't be holding your breath.

So, Hughes out, Starc on the verge, who comes in?

Well, it's obvious that both Watson and Harris are almost guaranteed a walk up start, provided both are fit, but we've also got Cowan coming out of the Canberra bat-off with a ton, so he has to go into calculations.

With Watson, Harris, Cowan and Hobart twelfth man Christian added o the surviving ten from Bellerive we've got a squad of fourteen to fit into eleven places in a starting line up.

From here we split them into definites: Warner, a fit Watson, Clarke, Haddin, Pattinson, a fit Harris, Siddle and Lyon

and the possibilities: Khawaja, Ponting, Hussey and Starc from Hobart and Cowan on the horizon.

We then take those definites and slot them into a batting order. After that we'll start asking questions and filling in the gaps.

So, Warner, Two, Three, Watson (subject to possible move), Clarke, Six, Haddin, Harris, Pattinson, Siddle, Lyon, Twelve.

Twelve is easy enough. Starc sits into that spot based on the possibility of injury and the quick turn around between tests.

Warner, Two, Three, Watson (subject to possible move), Clarke, Six, Haddin, Harris, Pattinson, Siddle, Lyon, Starc.

Given the assumption that Starc is there to cover for injury to someone in the bowling group, the back to back test factor, the need for a fourth quick in the eleven the next question involves Watson.

So, is he going to bowl?
If no, Christian has to play, and therefore has to bat Six.

 If yes, you can hold that Six open for long enough to consider cover for Harris if he plays and breaks down during the match. If he breaks down before the game, Starc could slot in there. Alternatively Christian could slide into Eight but you're still probably a bowler short.

No, Christian has to platy, preferably batting Six, but Watson fit to bowl, and Harris injured could see him drop to Eight.

But let's stop pussyfooting around. Christian at Six, tweaking to follow if injury becomes a concern.

Warner, Two, Three, Watson (subject to possible move), Clarke, Christian, Haddin, Harris, Pattinson, Siddle, Lyon, Starc, which leaves the question of how we slot Watson, Cowan, Ponting, Khawaja and Hussey into Two, Three and Four. Five contenders for three spots, so which way do we go?

I'm assuming Watson's moving down the order with an increase in bowling workload. If he's not bowling, he could open, but he's going to be bowling some time, so rule that out.

We want to be looking towards a long term opening combination, so it's a choice between Khawaja, Cowan and Hussey for Two. Any of the three could do it, but Hussey would be a temporary fix. Khawaja has been thrown in at the deep end against the new ball at three, and hasn't done enough to suggest a move upwards. If he stays, he'd need to bat down the order at Four.

Cowan may be pushing thirty so he's no spring chicken, but he's a specialist opener  in form. He could have three or four years in him if he's got the goods.

Warner, Cowan, Khawaja/Ponting/Hussey, Watson (subject to possible move), Clarke, Christian, Haddin, Harris, Pattinson, Siddle, Lyon, Starc.

And isn't that last spot a doozy?

Doesn't have to be, but it's a matter of whether we're looking at biting bullets.

There's also the possibility of moving Watson up to Three, which would work if, for example, you wanted to look at Khawaja at Four. That's a question of where you see Khawaja as a long term prospect. I don't think he's done enough at Three, though you'd also note that he's repeatedly been exposed to the new ball after the loss of an early wicket.

Given the fact that they haven't let him go yet, I suspect Ponting will hold his place, which then raises the question of when he does get let go. Sorry Mr Cricket, sorry young Usman, but that's the way I reckon it'll shake out.

On the other hand, we still need to be working towards the squad of twenty, with the current eleven, a reserve keeper and spinner, three bats and four bowlers. There's a spot for Khawaja there, though you'd hardly be thinking Ponting and Hussey are both long term prospects.

If I was doing the selecting I'd name a squad of thirteen (the twelve I think they'll pick plus Khawaja) and look at him a cover for a batting injury between now and Perth with Starc in the same role as far as the bowling's concerned.

My twelve: Warner, Cowan, Watson, Ponting, Clarke, Christian, Haddin, Harris, Pattinson, Siddle, Lyon, Starc.