Trans-Tasman Preview

Following some early morning Facebook interaction with an over-ambitious Kiwi my thoughts, as I pounded the pavement on the early morning lap around the Front Beach, turned towards what I'd like to see come out of the forthcoming two Test series against New Zealand.

Actually, my thoughts veered off in three fairly separate directions.

What I'd like to see, not that I fancy my chances due to the factors involved is a 2-0 scoreline in Australia's favour after a tightly fought couple of games with the Black Caps playing at around 120%.

As the reader will appreciate, that's a huge ask, so I'll happily settle for something less than that. The Kiwis, for example, might not get to that 120%, and if you're going to play at The Gabba in November there's always the risk of the weather coming into the equation.

A 2-0 scoreline under those circumstances is, however, the only situation where you're likely to be able to look back and identify things that could or should have been done better.

Of course there are some things I don't want to see, and the reader might suspect the first of them is a 2-0 scoreline the other way. The reader would be right on that, but under the aforementioned tightly fought scenario, that result would, at least, be tolerable.

A 2-0 scoreline that way would probably produce the sort of One-Eyed Cross-Ditch ranting we've come to expect every time someone has the temerity to suggest the All Blacks shouldn't be allowed to do the haka.

Before we get sidetracked by that one, please note that Hughesy isn't calling for the outlawing of the haka, just for the other side to be allowed a couple of minutes' vigorous warm-up between the haka and the kickoff.

And if that's too big an ask, how's about moving the haka to before the anthems?

But I digress.

The only thing I'd like to see less than the predictable outpouring of trans-Tasman scorn that'd follow a 2-0 score line would be big hundreds to Ponting and Hussey followed by pronouncements that they felt their current run of form justified their retention through the series in the West Indies and beyond.

I've got no issue with big hundreds to The Punter and Mr Cricket, provided they're followed by press conferences that suggest something along the lines that they've decided they're still available, should the selectors feel inclined to retain them in the squad, until the end of the summer.

So that covers what I'd like to see, and what I don't want to see.

So what do I actually want to see?

First up, a demonstrated commitment to generational change and developing a squad of around eighteen players who'll be the basis of the Australian side over the next few years.

Second, we'll hopefully see some movement towards a bowling attack that can take twenty wickets.

I've got no problem with losing at the Gabba after batting first, particularly if it comes after losing the toss provided it has looked like the bowlers could've bowled the opposition out twice if they'd had enough runs to bowl at.

Lose the toss, get sent in, lose early wickets, fight back, claim some early wickets while there's still some soup in the track, concede a first innings lead, more respectable total batting second and a tightly fought fourth innings that ends up as a win with two or three wickets in hand would be regarded as an honourable result either way…

But I want to see signs of an attack that can take twenty wickets pitching the ball up and getting the thing to swing. And if this line-up can't do that, I want to see them shuffled until we have an attack that can.

Assuming Lyon is going to play both games, I want to see extended spells of aggressive spin bowling to well set attacking fields.

With the bat, bearing the conditions at the Gabba in mind and the possibility that we'll be batting first in bowler-friendly conditions I want to see at least one substantial opening partnership, and at least one innings that delivers the potential that Khawaja has demonstrated so far without necessarily translating it into three figures.

Most particularly, I want to see Watson and Marsh back in the side when injury issues are sorted out, and if either breaks down again I don't want to see a current senior player who has been moved aside to make room for them being recalled.

Oh, yes, and Watson must not open the batting.

It all comes down to the interaction, doesn't it?

With the pieces of the selectorial jigsaw finally in place and the first phone hookup for the selection panel apparently scheduled for tonight, we'll presumably see a few answers to questions about the makeup of the Australian side over the next couple of days and, hopefully, it'll be a matter of later rather than sooner.

I'd be extremely disappointed if tonight's discussions are followed by an announcement tomorrow. If it is it'll be a fair indication that the panel is looking to a continuation of business as usual rather than a conscious rebuilding process.

The point of the preceding couple of blog entries was an attempt to put together an Australian side using the same thought processes that would have been used to select a Primary School representative side back in the days when I was involved, and while there's no guarantee the national panel will follow the same process and come up with a similar result I'm hoping we won't be seeing Michael Clarke getting things right when he said " I have a selection meeting on Thursday, a phone hookup with the other selectors, and I'll imagine the team will be announced shortly after that conversation." (Source here)

If it turns out that way you'd have to suspect a case of tweaking the side from the last game rather than starting a rebuild from the ground up.

Somehow, I don't think that a result out of a Thursday night conversation is a good look for the future.

For a start it means anything that happens on day two, three or four of the Australia A game doesn't come into the calculations, and we've got all the state sides involved over the next couple of days. With the Test starting Thursday you'd suspect there's no need for an announcement before Saturday night. Allow Sunday for the players to get to Brisbane (if they're not already there) and three days' preparation and they should be right to go on Thursday.

Any announcement before that is going to suggest a lack of detailed contingency planning, which is something that you'd expect would almost be mandatory in a case where the only element of continuity from the old regime is the identity of the captain. Presumably there have been discussions between Inverarity and the outgoing panel, but how many and who else was involved isn't something we're likely to be hearing about.

If tonight's phone hookup is the first time the full selection panel has been sitting around the same virtual table they'll have a few items on the agenda beyond selecting the squad for the Gabba next Thursday. That's going to be a major concern, but there'll need to be a fair bit of sorting out when it comes to who does what?

Clarke, one assumes, will be looking towards retaining players he has a close relationship with, and shouldn't be asked to deliver the bad news where an incumbent is concerned.

That role, of course, should go to the National Selector, who'll be fairly busy over summer, and there'll be issues as to who gets to see what along the way.

With four selectors apart from Clarke, and Pat Howard as team performance manager there'll be a number of housekeeping issues to be sorted out somewhere along the line (if they haven't already).

You'd assume the coach will be watching Australia A take on New Zealand at Alan Border Field today, and you'd suspect the captain may be there as well (if he isn't at the SCG for the NSW v WA game that starts tomorrow. You'd expect one of the other selectors would be at that game, with someone else in Adelaide to watch the Redbacks take on the Bulls and somebody'll need to find their way to the MCG on Sunday for the Victoria-Tasmania game.

Among the first things you'd expect to be discussed on tonight's hookup would be what transpired at Alan Border Field during the day, and then, with those issues dealt with it'll be time to start sorting out a team for next Thursday.

Assuming they're going to follow something like the thought processes detailed in my lat couple of posts they're either going to have a very large phone bill for tonight's conversation or will need to be getting back in touch with each other on Saturday, which is the way I'd be inclined to go.

There'll also be ongoing matters that need to be sorted out, and the chief one of those will be the rotation of bowlers through the summer and the steps they take to ensure Cummins isn't overworked. Now, some of those matters may already have been addressed, but you'd expect they'd be issues to raise, discuss, go away to ponder and return to the table to make a decision about.

We mightn't be privy to the actual processes, but you'll be able to get a feel for how things are going in the timing and content of announcements that follow that initial phone hookup

Almost done!

You might, given a current projection of:
Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Batting all-rounder, Haddin/Wade, Bowling all-rounder, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon (12th)

be inclined to think we're stepping around the issues, but with seven out of twelve spots more or less definite, or at least definite as far as Hughesy's concerned (Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Cummins, Lyon) and a straightforward either/or for the 'keeper's spot the final consideration involves the question mark over Watson, the general issue of the all-rounder's place in the side and the makeup of the bowling attack.

So we start with the two all-rounder spots.

Now, the first point that needs to be made here is that the all-rounder needs to be good enough to go close to selection in the side as a bat or a bowler, with the extra string to the bow coming in as a bonus.

Back in the Gilchrist era you could see him as a 'keeping all-rounder, since his glove work mightn't have been the best in the country (but it wasn't that far short of technically-superior rivals) his batting wasn't that far off justifying his inclusion as a specialist.

With Watson we're looking at a batting all-rounder, and if he's not fit to play at the Gabba, the cover for him is a bat who bowls. This means he's someone who'll bat six and contribute some useful overs, either covering for the lack of a specialist spinner or adding a fifth seamer to an all-pace attack.

Number Eight's a slightly different kettle of fish, and if Mitchell Johnson was firing he'd be a natural fit, a front line bowler who can contribute with the bat. There will be those who'll argue that his 40* at The Wanderers has saved his bacon, but there's no question about the bowling side of the equation.

No, send Mitch off to play for the Warriors, giving him a potential path back (if form justifies it) against India in Perth, or alternatively, with the Big Bash on the horizon and the ODIs against India to follow, Mitch's all-round ability makes him an obvious candidate for the shorter forms of the game.

A quick glance at the Shield results from the season to date throws up a number of candidates which can be grouped as Christian/Henriques/Smith for the spot at Six, and Hopes/Mitchell Marsh/McDonald at Eight.

Given Smith's inclusion in the squad for the Australia A game, you'd pick him as the obvious favourite, though the other two have strong claims as well.

At the Gabba, if you reckon four quicks are enough Smith's the obvious choice, and he's obviously got potential despite being pretty thoroughly done over against England last summer. If I was sitting at the selection table, however, I'd be leaning towards Henriques since we're looking to manage Cummins' workload. Under other circumstances four quicks might be enough, but let's not overload the youngster.

With those factors in mind, let's throw Copeland into the Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle bracket, since Harris is unlikely, Hilfenhaus may emerge from the #11 bowl-off and he'd slipped my mind up to this point.

So:

Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Henriques, Haddin/Wade, Hopes/Mitchell Marsh/McDonald, Copeland/Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon (12th)

From there, things fall into place pretty quickly.

At Eight the logical choice is Hopes, though Mitchell Marsh is obviously on the way up. It's a relatively inexperienced attack, so the first class and international experience will be helpful.

Assuming we've ruled out Harris on fitness grounds, with Hopes in there already, it becomes a toss up between Copeland, Siddle and Hilfenhaus, and given the emerging shape of the lineup, Copeland.

Anything can, and probably will, happen at Bellerive, but I'd be looking for a lefty to round out the attack, so a couple of days out from the announcement with the Australia A game due to start tomorrow I'd be pencilling in:

Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Henriques, Haddin/Wade, Hopes, Copeland, Cummins, Starc, Lyon (12th)

Assuming Watson is unfit, a relatively inexperienced side might be enough to save Haddin's bacon, but I'd be leaning towards Wade who will probably, given the way these things invariably seem to run, break a finger in the Australia A game...

So let's leave it at that until Saturday and turn our thoughts elsewhere for a bit….

Four names for two places

We left you yesterday, in the middle of this on-going attempt to sort out a new Australian side using the methodology we used to use to select Primary School representative sides with a lineup of"

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Haddin/Wade, Eight, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon

and a promise to return to ponder how we fit two out of Ponting, Marsh, Khawaja and Hussey into Three and Six, which is where we are now.

In the meantime, over at The Wanderers we've got a major injury cloud over Watson, and Ponting sitting on 54 not, with Clarke just arrived at the crease following Khawaja's dismissal for 65.

 Surely that becomes part of the equation?

Well, actually, it doesn't. We got ourselves into this position because the gradual transition that should have happened over the past few seasons has been thrown out of whack because of short term priorities that affected long term strategic planning.

The first of those short term considerations was, of course, getting The Ashes back after the loss in 2005, and while you can understand a captain's desire to continue on to England to defend the urn, then stick around in the attempt to get it back, you're not realistically going to be looking at Ponting as a prospect for the 2013 Ashes series.

Now you might think that Hughesy's long-standing opinion that it was a Ponting bungle at the toss in the Second Test back in 2005 that ended up causing the whole chamozzle has some bearing on this, and maybe it does, but there's absolutely no doubt Ponting is running out of time.

Mike Hussey, the other '05 survivor is more or less in the same boat, and in both cases it's a matter of when rather than if, of press conference announcements or selectorial statements, falling on the sword or getting the bullet.

There seems to be a body of opinion suggesting the injury cloud over Watson has some bearing on these matters. It may well have some influence, but when you look at it in the cold hard light of generational change it shouldn't.

With Watson's place in doubt, and the possibility that there'll be similar issues in the future we should be looking at a like for like replacement, a batting all-rounder, though that doesn't necessarily mean he needs to bowl fast medium.

There's no suggestion that either Ponting or Hussey are going to be bowling somewhere between fifteen and twenty overs as a third or fourth seamer. There are two spots in there that can go to Watson and an all-rounder, so let's pencil in Smith, Macdonald, Henriques and Mitchell Marsh as possibilities for those two spots.

No, it's two out of Ponting, Khawaja, Hussey and S. Marsh, as far as Three and Six are concerned. There'll be a slight reshuffle in the middle as far as the actual order is concerned, but we've got two incumbents and two likely replacements, so it all comes down to the timing.

With Marsh ruled out of consideration on fitness grounds, he may get a run around the paddock at the WACA with Mitch and may be back later.

So three names to fit into two spots. I suspect we're going to see at least one press conference after Wanderers, so it's obviously a case of Khawaja and whoever doesn't have the press conference, but if things don't pan out that way I'd go Ponting and Khawaja, working on the basis that we're quite possibly going to be losing an early wicket if we bat first at the Gabba, and the most obvious alternative at Three would have been directed towards the WACA.

Assuming Mr Cricket hasn't announced his retirement from all forms of the game in the meantime, I'd have him on a mission to sort out a few state-based bowling attacks, with a definite indication that the door isn't completely closed.

So, for the Gabba, with a bit of reshuffling in the light of things that have come to pass since I started the exercise:

Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Batting all-rounder, Haddin/Wade, Bowling all-rounder, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon (12th).

Next up, Watson and the all-rounder issue.

Trying to sort out the quicks

This crystal ball gazing is a bit tricky, but with young Cummins getting a guernsey at The Wanderers, picking up a couple of wickets, and apparently looking the pick of the bowlers when it comes to taking more, slot him in there there at Eleven.

That leaves one more spot in a four man pace battery. We have Cummins as the tearaway, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle to do the donkey work, Watson to pitch it up assuming he's fit and a slot to fill. Until he broke down in the Shield game at the Gabba I was inclined towards Bollinger, but with him out injured, that last spot goes to who bowls the best out of the pace battery named for the Australia A game against the Kiwis. I've already got Hilfenhaus in the other bracket, and with Harris unlikely, there could well be room for him and Siddle in the same side, a factor I'd been veering away from previously, so another bracket of Hilfenhaus, Cutting, Pattinson and Starc.

I'd probably like the fourth bloke to be a lefty for the different angle, so that'd leave Starc as the favourite going into the bowl-off, where anything could happen and probably will.

On the lefty front, with Western Australia down to play South Australia at the WACA in early December I'd be sending Johnson over there, with an instruction to get a swag of wickets before a possible horses for courses return in the Third Test against India (if not earlier). If he's as confidence influenced as has been suggested, you probably need to do things like that.

Which moves us here, with a bit of reshuffling at the bottom.

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Keeper, Eight, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon

The keeper's spot is obviously going to depend on how Haddin goes at The Wanderers, with Wade as the likely replacement. Leave them as a bracket selection for the moment.

So:

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Haddin/Wade, Eight, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon

Next question. Do we need a spinner in Brisbane? Maybe you need one in the squad, and we've got Lyon there already but let's assume he's going to be the twelfth man.

So, Eight could be a fifth quick, which would cover for Harris and Watson, since both have to be question marks at the moment as far as lasting the game and bowling the requisite number of overs. Maybe another all-rounder. Macdonald? Henriques?

Alternatively, you could go for the leg spinning Smith at Seven and move the Keeper to eight.

But that's enough for now. We'll put that to one side for the moment and return tomorrow to ponder how we fit two out of Ponting, Marsh, Khawaja and Hussey into Three and Six.

Back to the top of the order

But back to the top of the order…

There are, at least to my mind, only two players guaranteed a start in Brisbane, and they're the captain and vice-captain. Clarke and Watson should fill two spots out of numbers Four, Five and Six.

Assuming he's fit to bowl, on a pace friendly Gabba deck, Watson can expect his share of the workload, and it's obvious he can't do that, open the batting and chip in with the big hundreds you'd expect from a batsman of his class. Two out of those three, maybe, but he hasn't managed to do that full monty yet, and if something happens to one of the blokes who do open the batting, the fact he can open if necessary is a fall back.

You might put the case for leaving him to open while the niggles that stop him from bowling are sorted out, but if you're going to do that, you're effectively saying we'll move him down the order when he's right to bowl again, which means you'll be looking for another opener later rather than sooner.

Shane's ego is apparently a bit of an issue, but you'd reckon being labelled a vital cog in the attack, and a fallback opener if necessary shouldn't bruise it too much. If it does, I'd be suggesting a position in the middle order is going to deliver more of those big hundreds that a batsman of his calibre should be getting.

If that doesn't do the trick I'd be pointing out a perceived weakness against the swinging ball.

So if Watson doesn't open, who does?

Hughes is the other current incumbent, and should hold his place. There are big question marks over his technique, but he deserves a go, particularly after being dropped so Watto could offer another bowling option to cover for Misfiring Mitch.

Warner seems to be the next cab off the rank as far as opening is concerned, so pencil him in there as the other opener. I also note that he bowls a bit of leg spin, so there's an occasional bowler up Clarke's sleeve to go with his left arm tweakers.

The combination of Hughes and Warner looks like the best option at the moment, and if they can't get a start against New Zealand and India in Australia, then you'd reckon they're not going to trouble top sides with strong pace attacks.

So you give Hughes to the middle of the series against India, Warner a little longer, and with a West Indies tour next year that coincides with the IPL you'd guess there's room for further experimentation if necessary.

So, at the moment, we've got a lineup of:

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Keeper, Eight, Nine, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Eleven, Lyon (likely 12th for Brisbane)

Pondering the workhorse and spinner factors

Further ponderings that Blogger wouldn't let me post in the one entry

My approach to these things is based on looking at what we've got at the moment, and then pencil in people to fill the gaps. It's the way we've gone about selecting most of the schools rep teams I've been involved with, and it underlines the fallacy of the we pick the best eleven players comment because the best eleven players in the country might not, for example, include a wicketkeeper.

One of the best eleven players in the country could well be a Jamie Siddons, Stuart Law or Brad Hodge, who's not going to push his way into a batting order that's fairly long on talent already.

And one of the reasons those blokes may have missed the bus lay in the need to find enough people to bowl the requisite number of overs in the game. There's no limit on the number of overs you're going to be asked to bowl in a Test match, so you need to be taking wickets as well, which complicated things a tad further. A limited overs game with an attack lacking penetration can be all about minimising scoring opportunities, but to win a Test you need to take twenty wickets.

You may, as the recently-departed selection panel did, find great difficulty in finding a spin bowler, should you decide you want one in the side. Apart from concepts like a balanced attack, there are also over rates and other considerations that work against an all-pace attack, and the bloke who's going to be asked to fill that role may be well outside the notional best twelve, twenty, or even, heaven forbid, the best forty or fifty.

There's a perfect example of the lengths selectors may go to when they're determined to play a spinner back in a Queensland Primary Schools Carnival back in 1985.

You may question what this has to do with the matter under consideration at the moment, but it's an excuse to bring out one of my all-time favourite strange the way things work out yarns in front of a new audience, so here it goes.

The trials to select that year's NQ Primary Schools team, were held in Mackay and  two of the four days were rained out.

It was a three team trial, which sounds odd until I point out each team brought a squad of fifteen with the four "leftovers" going into a composite side. Of the three teams, one was drawn from Townsville, Charters Towers and Ingham, one from the Burdekin, Bowen and Proserpine and the third from Mackay and the Pioneer Valley.

You'd expect the Townsville and Mackay-based teams to dominate both the composite team and the Whitsundays, but on the first day Whitsunday tied with Townsville, and Mackay had a reasonably comfortable win against the Composites.

The big upset came on the second day, when Whitsunday did a demolition job on Pioneer, and the other game went more or less the way you'd have expected it to go without too many standout performances.

With the other two days washed out we were left scratching our heads about the selection, and the best we could come up with was to have each of the three coaches write down their best twelve, slot in anyone we all agreed on and see where we went from there.

As it turned out, we agreed on four or five names, and from there the rest was plain sailing until it got down to the last spot. We were after  a middle order bat and had two kids in contention with almost identical scores in the two games they'd played.

There were already an unprecedented five Whitsunday boys in the side, so while one of the two was a Bowen kid I wasn't going to be pushing as desperately as I might otherwise have done. I could, for instance, have pointed out that my bloke had scored his runs against the top sides, while one of the other feller's fairly unimpressive scores had been against the also rans in the Composites.

The other kid came from Townsville, and wasn't being pushed too much either, except for a single comment added as an afterthought. Oh, yes, Ruff added, we don't have a spinner in the side at the moment, but he does bowl a bit of off spin. Hasn't done it down here, but I was going to give him a trundle yesterday.

Or words to that effect. The occasional offie got the guernsey.

So the side headed off in the last week of school, and I was heading off to join them as soon as the holidays started. We were well into the end of year festivities when the parents of the Bowen kid who'd ended up captaining the side found me in a local watering hole.

A couple of kids had picked up a stomach bug, and their son was so crook he wanted to come home. This was scary, since he'd been away earlier in the year as the half back in the NQ Rugby League side, and half backs, as a rule, tend not to be sooks. Fortunately, things settled down overnight, and by Sunday (no chance to get onto turf wickets on the Saturday) he was pretty right to play.

Unfortunately, the big bloke from Mackay we'd chosen to open the bowling wasn't. In fact, if I recall correctly, he mightn't have managed another game through the rest of a lengthy carnival.

With a bowler down and no way of getting a substitute from home, we rejigged the attack. It was back in the days before over limits for bowlers, and you could do that sort of rejigging by giving the rest of the attack extra work.

Unfortunately, extra work produces its own problems. A pair of boots that didn't quite fit started producing blisters on a left armer who'd looked pretty good in the early stages of the carnival. The other left armer pulled a muscle in his back throwing a ball in from the boundary. The kid who was spearheading the attack bowled his guts out every day, but we were starting to run out of options when we remembered the kid who bowls a bit of off spin.

He got a five or six over spell, and after the game we had the State coach over, asking us to bowl him some more. We did, and when they named the State team, there was one of our opening bats, who'd managed a ton along the way and Mr Bowls a Bit of Off Spin. The quickie who bowled his guts out missed out…

Given a different scenario a month or so earlier the kid wouldn't have been there at all, but the blokes who were picking the side wanted a spinner, even if he wasn't in the top twenty or thirty players at the carnival.

It's an extreme example, but it underlines the point that the eleven who take the field for Australia aren't necessarily the best eleven players in the country.

Given the perceived need for a spinner in the attack (and it's more than a perceived need when you're playing in India) you can see why they've tried so many over the past couple of years, though you'd have hoped that one of them might have been given a slightly longer run before seemingly being dismissed as not quite what we had in mind.

Lyon seems to be getting that extended run at the moment, so for all intents and purposes, barring injury or a total loss of form he should stay in the frame for the games against New Zealand, and, barring major disasters, hold his place into the series against India.

So at the bowling end of the spectrum we've got Lyon pencilled in as the spinner, a question mark over Watson with the ball, and a bracket of three to fill the work horse role (Harris, Hilfenhaus, Siddle) and come up with a notional way of looking at 'em to determine who might fill that role over the next few years.With Harris a game by game proposition, it's a chance to consider two logical alternatives.