Almost done!

You might, given a current projection of:
Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Batting all-rounder, Haddin/Wade, Bowling all-rounder, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon (12th)

be inclined to think we're stepping around the issues, but with seven out of twelve spots more or less definite, or at least definite as far as Hughesy's concerned (Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Cummins, Lyon) and a straightforward either/or for the 'keeper's spot the final consideration involves the question mark over Watson, the general issue of the all-rounder's place in the side and the makeup of the bowling attack.

So we start with the two all-rounder spots.

Now, the first point that needs to be made here is that the all-rounder needs to be good enough to go close to selection in the side as a bat or a bowler, with the extra string to the bow coming in as a bonus.

Back in the Gilchrist era you could see him as a 'keeping all-rounder, since his glove work mightn't have been the best in the country (but it wasn't that far short of technically-superior rivals) his batting wasn't that far off justifying his inclusion as a specialist.

With Watson we're looking at a batting all-rounder, and if he's not fit to play at the Gabba, the cover for him is a bat who bowls. This means he's someone who'll bat six and contribute some useful overs, either covering for the lack of a specialist spinner or adding a fifth seamer to an all-pace attack.

Number Eight's a slightly different kettle of fish, and if Mitchell Johnson was firing he'd be a natural fit, a front line bowler who can contribute with the bat. There will be those who'll argue that his 40* at The Wanderers has saved his bacon, but there's no question about the bowling side of the equation.

No, send Mitch off to play for the Warriors, giving him a potential path back (if form justifies it) against India in Perth, or alternatively, with the Big Bash on the horizon and the ODIs against India to follow, Mitch's all-round ability makes him an obvious candidate for the shorter forms of the game.

A quick glance at the Shield results from the season to date throws up a number of candidates which can be grouped as Christian/Henriques/Smith for the spot at Six, and Hopes/Mitchell Marsh/McDonald at Eight.

Given Smith's inclusion in the squad for the Australia A game, you'd pick him as the obvious favourite, though the other two have strong claims as well.

At the Gabba, if you reckon four quicks are enough Smith's the obvious choice, and he's obviously got potential despite being pretty thoroughly done over against England last summer. If I was sitting at the selection table, however, I'd be leaning towards Henriques since we're looking to manage Cummins' workload. Under other circumstances four quicks might be enough, but let's not overload the youngster.

With those factors in mind, let's throw Copeland into the Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle bracket, since Harris is unlikely, Hilfenhaus may emerge from the #11 bowl-off and he'd slipped my mind up to this point.

So:

Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Henriques, Haddin/Wade, Hopes/Mitchell Marsh/McDonald, Copeland/Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon (12th)

From there, things fall into place pretty quickly.

At Eight the logical choice is Hopes, though Mitchell Marsh is obviously on the way up. It's a relatively inexperienced attack, so the first class and international experience will be helpful.

Assuming we've ruled out Harris on fitness grounds, with Hopes in there already, it becomes a toss up between Copeland, Siddle and Hilfenhaus, and given the emerging shape of the lineup, Copeland.

Anything can, and probably will, happen at Bellerive, but I'd be looking for a lefty to round out the attack, so a couple of days out from the announcement with the Australia A game due to start tomorrow I'd be pencilling in:

Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Henriques, Haddin/Wade, Hopes, Copeland, Cummins, Starc, Lyon (12th)

Assuming Watson is unfit, a relatively inexperienced side might be enough to save Haddin's bacon, but I'd be leaning towards Wade who will probably, given the way these things invariably seem to run, break a finger in the Australia A game...

So let's leave it at that until Saturday and turn our thoughts elsewhere for a bit….

Four names for two places

We left you yesterday, in the middle of this on-going attempt to sort out a new Australian side using the methodology we used to use to select Primary School representative sides with a lineup of"

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Haddin/Wade, Eight, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon

and a promise to return to ponder how we fit two out of Ponting, Marsh, Khawaja and Hussey into Three and Six, which is where we are now.

In the meantime, over at The Wanderers we've got a major injury cloud over Watson, and Ponting sitting on 54 not, with Clarke just arrived at the crease following Khawaja's dismissal for 65.

 Surely that becomes part of the equation?

Well, actually, it doesn't. We got ourselves into this position because the gradual transition that should have happened over the past few seasons has been thrown out of whack because of short term priorities that affected long term strategic planning.

The first of those short term considerations was, of course, getting The Ashes back after the loss in 2005, and while you can understand a captain's desire to continue on to England to defend the urn, then stick around in the attempt to get it back, you're not realistically going to be looking at Ponting as a prospect for the 2013 Ashes series.

Now you might think that Hughesy's long-standing opinion that it was a Ponting bungle at the toss in the Second Test back in 2005 that ended up causing the whole chamozzle has some bearing on this, and maybe it does, but there's absolutely no doubt Ponting is running out of time.

Mike Hussey, the other '05 survivor is more or less in the same boat, and in both cases it's a matter of when rather than if, of press conference announcements or selectorial statements, falling on the sword or getting the bullet.

There seems to be a body of opinion suggesting the injury cloud over Watson has some bearing on these matters. It may well have some influence, but when you look at it in the cold hard light of generational change it shouldn't.

With Watson's place in doubt, and the possibility that there'll be similar issues in the future we should be looking at a like for like replacement, a batting all-rounder, though that doesn't necessarily mean he needs to bowl fast medium.

There's no suggestion that either Ponting or Hussey are going to be bowling somewhere between fifteen and twenty overs as a third or fourth seamer. There are two spots in there that can go to Watson and an all-rounder, so let's pencil in Smith, Macdonald, Henriques and Mitchell Marsh as possibilities for those two spots.

No, it's two out of Ponting, Khawaja, Hussey and S. Marsh, as far as Three and Six are concerned. There'll be a slight reshuffle in the middle as far as the actual order is concerned, but we've got two incumbents and two likely replacements, so it all comes down to the timing.

With Marsh ruled out of consideration on fitness grounds, he may get a run around the paddock at the WACA with Mitch and may be back later.

So three names to fit into two spots. I suspect we're going to see at least one press conference after Wanderers, so it's obviously a case of Khawaja and whoever doesn't have the press conference, but if things don't pan out that way I'd go Ponting and Khawaja, working on the basis that we're quite possibly going to be losing an early wicket if we bat first at the Gabba, and the most obvious alternative at Three would have been directed towards the WACA.

Assuming Mr Cricket hasn't announced his retirement from all forms of the game in the meantime, I'd have him on a mission to sort out a few state-based bowling attacks, with a definite indication that the door isn't completely closed.

So, for the Gabba, with a bit of reshuffling in the light of things that have come to pass since I started the exercise:

Hughes, Warner, Khawaja, Ponting, Clarke, Watson/Batting all-rounder, Haddin/Wade, Bowling all-rounder, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon (12th).

Next up, Watson and the all-rounder issue.

Trying to sort out the quicks

This crystal ball gazing is a bit tricky, but with young Cummins getting a guernsey at The Wanderers, picking up a couple of wickets, and apparently looking the pick of the bowlers when it comes to taking more, slot him in there there at Eleven.

That leaves one more spot in a four man pace battery. We have Cummins as the tearaway, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle to do the donkey work, Watson to pitch it up assuming he's fit and a slot to fill. Until he broke down in the Shield game at the Gabba I was inclined towards Bollinger, but with him out injured, that last spot goes to who bowls the best out of the pace battery named for the Australia A game against the Kiwis. I've already got Hilfenhaus in the other bracket, and with Harris unlikely, there could well be room for him and Siddle in the same side, a factor I'd been veering away from previously, so another bracket of Hilfenhaus, Cutting, Pattinson and Starc.

I'd probably like the fourth bloke to be a lefty for the different angle, so that'd leave Starc as the favourite going into the bowl-off, where anything could happen and probably will.

On the lefty front, with Western Australia down to play South Australia at the WACA in early December I'd be sending Johnson over there, with an instruction to get a swag of wickets before a possible horses for courses return in the Third Test against India (if not earlier). If he's as confidence influenced as has been suggested, you probably need to do things like that.

Which moves us here, with a bit of reshuffling at the bottom.

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Keeper, Eight, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon

The keeper's spot is obviously going to depend on how Haddin goes at The Wanderers, with Wade as the likely replacement. Leave them as a bracket selection for the moment.

So:

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Haddin/Wade, Eight, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Cummins, Hilfenhaus/Cutting/Pattinson/Starc, Lyon

Next question. Do we need a spinner in Brisbane? Maybe you need one in the squad, and we've got Lyon there already but let's assume he's going to be the twelfth man.

So, Eight could be a fifth quick, which would cover for Harris and Watson, since both have to be question marks at the moment as far as lasting the game and bowling the requisite number of overs. Maybe another all-rounder. Macdonald? Henriques?

Alternatively, you could go for the leg spinning Smith at Seven and move the Keeper to eight.

But that's enough for now. We'll put that to one side for the moment and return tomorrow to ponder how we fit two out of Ponting, Marsh, Khawaja and Hussey into Three and Six.

Back to the top of the order

But back to the top of the order…

There are, at least to my mind, only two players guaranteed a start in Brisbane, and they're the captain and vice-captain. Clarke and Watson should fill two spots out of numbers Four, Five and Six.

Assuming he's fit to bowl, on a pace friendly Gabba deck, Watson can expect his share of the workload, and it's obvious he can't do that, open the batting and chip in with the big hundreds you'd expect from a batsman of his class. Two out of those three, maybe, but he hasn't managed to do that full monty yet, and if something happens to one of the blokes who do open the batting, the fact he can open if necessary is a fall back.

You might put the case for leaving him to open while the niggles that stop him from bowling are sorted out, but if you're going to do that, you're effectively saying we'll move him down the order when he's right to bowl again, which means you'll be looking for another opener later rather than sooner.

Shane's ego is apparently a bit of an issue, but you'd reckon being labelled a vital cog in the attack, and a fallback opener if necessary shouldn't bruise it too much. If it does, I'd be suggesting a position in the middle order is going to deliver more of those big hundreds that a batsman of his calibre should be getting.

If that doesn't do the trick I'd be pointing out a perceived weakness against the swinging ball.

So if Watson doesn't open, who does?

Hughes is the other current incumbent, and should hold his place. There are big question marks over his technique, but he deserves a go, particularly after being dropped so Watto could offer another bowling option to cover for Misfiring Mitch.

Warner seems to be the next cab off the rank as far as opening is concerned, so pencil him in there as the other opener. I also note that he bowls a bit of leg spin, so there's an occasional bowler up Clarke's sleeve to go with his left arm tweakers.

The combination of Hughes and Warner looks like the best option at the moment, and if they can't get a start against New Zealand and India in Australia, then you'd reckon they're not going to trouble top sides with strong pace attacks.

So you give Hughes to the middle of the series against India, Warner a little longer, and with a West Indies tour next year that coincides with the IPL you'd guess there's room for further experimentation if necessary.

So, at the moment, we've got a lineup of:

Hughes, Warner, Three, Watson, Clarke, Six, Keeper, Eight, Nine, Harris/Hilfenhaus/Siddle, Eleven, Lyon (likely 12th for Brisbane)

Pondering the workhorse and spinner factors

Further ponderings that Blogger wouldn't let me post in the one entry

My approach to these things is based on looking at what we've got at the moment, and then pencil in people to fill the gaps. It's the way we've gone about selecting most of the schools rep teams I've been involved with, and it underlines the fallacy of the we pick the best eleven players comment because the best eleven players in the country might not, for example, include a wicketkeeper.

One of the best eleven players in the country could well be a Jamie Siddons, Stuart Law or Brad Hodge, who's not going to push his way into a batting order that's fairly long on talent already.

And one of the reasons those blokes may have missed the bus lay in the need to find enough people to bowl the requisite number of overs in the game. There's no limit on the number of overs you're going to be asked to bowl in a Test match, so you need to be taking wickets as well, which complicated things a tad further. A limited overs game with an attack lacking penetration can be all about minimising scoring opportunities, but to win a Test you need to take twenty wickets.

You may, as the recently-departed selection panel did, find great difficulty in finding a spin bowler, should you decide you want one in the side. Apart from concepts like a balanced attack, there are also over rates and other considerations that work against an all-pace attack, and the bloke who's going to be asked to fill that role may be well outside the notional best twelve, twenty, or even, heaven forbid, the best forty or fifty.

There's a perfect example of the lengths selectors may go to when they're determined to play a spinner back in a Queensland Primary Schools Carnival back in 1985.

You may question what this has to do with the matter under consideration at the moment, but it's an excuse to bring out one of my all-time favourite strange the way things work out yarns in front of a new audience, so here it goes.

The trials to select that year's NQ Primary Schools team, were held in Mackay and  two of the four days were rained out.

It was a three team trial, which sounds odd until I point out each team brought a squad of fifteen with the four "leftovers" going into a composite side. Of the three teams, one was drawn from Townsville, Charters Towers and Ingham, one from the Burdekin, Bowen and Proserpine and the third from Mackay and the Pioneer Valley.

You'd expect the Townsville and Mackay-based teams to dominate both the composite team and the Whitsundays, but on the first day Whitsunday tied with Townsville, and Mackay had a reasonably comfortable win against the Composites.

The big upset came on the second day, when Whitsunday did a demolition job on Pioneer, and the other game went more or less the way you'd have expected it to go without too many standout performances.

With the other two days washed out we were left scratching our heads about the selection, and the best we could come up with was to have each of the three coaches write down their best twelve, slot in anyone we all agreed on and see where we went from there.

As it turned out, we agreed on four or five names, and from there the rest was plain sailing until it got down to the last spot. We were after  a middle order bat and had two kids in contention with almost identical scores in the two games they'd played.

There were already an unprecedented five Whitsunday boys in the side, so while one of the two was a Bowen kid I wasn't going to be pushing as desperately as I might otherwise have done. I could, for instance, have pointed out that my bloke had scored his runs against the top sides, while one of the other feller's fairly unimpressive scores had been against the also rans in the Composites.

The other kid came from Townsville, and wasn't being pushed too much either, except for a single comment added as an afterthought. Oh, yes, Ruff added, we don't have a spinner in the side at the moment, but he does bowl a bit of off spin. Hasn't done it down here, but I was going to give him a trundle yesterday.

Or words to that effect. The occasional offie got the guernsey.

So the side headed off in the last week of school, and I was heading off to join them as soon as the holidays started. We were well into the end of year festivities when the parents of the Bowen kid who'd ended up captaining the side found me in a local watering hole.

A couple of kids had picked up a stomach bug, and their son was so crook he wanted to come home. This was scary, since he'd been away earlier in the year as the half back in the NQ Rugby League side, and half backs, as a rule, tend not to be sooks. Fortunately, things settled down overnight, and by Sunday (no chance to get onto turf wickets on the Saturday) he was pretty right to play.

Unfortunately, the big bloke from Mackay we'd chosen to open the bowling wasn't. In fact, if I recall correctly, he mightn't have managed another game through the rest of a lengthy carnival.

With a bowler down and no way of getting a substitute from home, we rejigged the attack. It was back in the days before over limits for bowlers, and you could do that sort of rejigging by giving the rest of the attack extra work.

Unfortunately, extra work produces its own problems. A pair of boots that didn't quite fit started producing blisters on a left armer who'd looked pretty good in the early stages of the carnival. The other left armer pulled a muscle in his back throwing a ball in from the boundary. The kid who was spearheading the attack bowled his guts out every day, but we were starting to run out of options when we remembered the kid who bowls a bit of off spin.

He got a five or six over spell, and after the game we had the State coach over, asking us to bowl him some more. We did, and when they named the State team, there was one of our opening bats, who'd managed a ton along the way and Mr Bowls a Bit of Off Spin. The quickie who bowled his guts out missed out…

Given a different scenario a month or so earlier the kid wouldn't have been there at all, but the blokes who were picking the side wanted a spinner, even if he wasn't in the top twenty or thirty players at the carnival.

It's an extreme example, but it underlines the point that the eleven who take the field for Australia aren't necessarily the best eleven players in the country.

Given the perceived need for a spinner in the attack (and it's more than a perceived need when you're playing in India) you can see why they've tried so many over the past couple of years, though you'd have hoped that one of them might have been given a slightly longer run before seemingly being dismissed as not quite what we had in mind.

Lyon seems to be getting that extended run at the moment, so for all intents and purposes, barring injury or a total loss of form he should stay in the frame for the games against New Zealand, and, barring major disasters, hold his place into the series against India.

So at the bowling end of the spectrum we've got Lyon pencilled in as the spinner, a question mark over Watson with the ball, and a bracket of three to fill the work horse role (Harris, Hilfenhaus, Siddle) and come up with a notional way of looking at 'em to determine who might fill that role over the next few years.With Harris a game by game proposition, it's a chance to consider two logical alternatives.

Doesn't forty-eight hours make a power of difference?

Doesn't forty-eight hours make a power of difference when you're looking at these matters?

I signed off last time having figured what I thought was the best way of assessing three candidates for the workhorse role in the bowling attack, and within a day we had Harris flying back with a question mark over the long term prospects and Watson breaking down within four overs, both factors underlining the difficulties of doing anything too far out from the event, which is, of course, the Gabba test in just under a fortnight's time.

Now, with an impending birthday, associated celebrations, a brother on the premises and a subsequent decline in writing time, I find myself looking at South Africa at (effectively) 3 for 200 in the second dig, against a seemingly toothless attack. Watson hasn't bowled in the innings, Johnson's gone wicketless for thirty-something more than Cummins (who's snared two) and Siddle (who's the most economical of the three, but you want your workhorse to be taking wickets too, don't you?)

Under normal circumstances the selection of Australian teams and touring parties has been based around an established side with a bit of tweaking around the margins and throwing in a couple of players to cover injuries and form issues.

It has been a long time since we've been on the brink of substantial (if not wholesale) changes, so a big part of the process is assessing which of the current playing group still fit into the long term structure.

Having used Harris, Hilfenhaus and Siddle in that workhorse role in the past, with Mr McDermott's redefinition of a good length it's worth looking at some of the workhorses we've used in the past to see if they can still cut it under the new regime.

You'd figure that if they can't manage that on their home turf (and yes, I know Harris is a transplanted Croweater, but he's taken plenty of wickets at the Gabba) they won't do it anywhere else.

That was my thinking anyway.

Passing on messages

So, assuming a man hears what he wants to hear, what messages should be being passed on?

Let's start with something simple. Cut it back to basics. After all, when you look at it international cricket isn't exactly rocket science, at least it isn't on the surface.

There are depths lurking under there, of course, and often the basic principles get lost when you start fiddling with the fine details.

And given the fact that no one in the five man selection panel except Michael Clarke (and maybe the coach, when appointed, but you'd expect another appointment from outside the old inner circle) has a link to the old selectorial regime, maybe it's a case of building from the ground up.

So, start by bringing it back to very basics.

How do you win Test matchee? Simple. You score more runs than the opposition and you get them out twice.

How do you win limited overs matches? You score as many runs as you can and  restrict the opposition as much as you can.

It'll be a while before we're looking at the limited overs stuff, so let's concentrate on the Test matches for a while.

So, you score more runs than the opposition. That means you want a batting lineup that's capable of scoring at least five hundred in around five two-hour sessions.

Assuming you win the toss and elect to bat, that means you're either declaring or all out around tea time on Day Two, giving you most of the last session for a crack at them with fresh bowlers, a fairly fresh start on Day Three and a follow on target around the 300 mark.

If you're batting second, five hundred should go close to giving you a lead to bowl at in the second dig. If it doesn't you're probably not going to get a result anyway. With fifteen sessions in the game, and scoring around a hundred per session, two first innings scores over that 500 mark will have used up all of the first three days, probably going into Day Four, and leaves you with six sessions max to take twenty wickets. That's not what you'd label a result scenario.

But the key part there is the twenty wickets. A failure to take twenty wickets has been a consistent issue back through last year's Ashes series and beyond.

It's obvious that the current bowling group doesn't contain the right mix to take twenty wickets in most conditions, so there's an obvious need to go beyond talking about horses for courses and actually walking the walk after you've talked the talk.

In other words, you should be looking at the likely conditions and picking a balanced attack that'll work in those conditions on that wicket rather than maintaining the same basic group and expecting them to adjust.

Of course, if you're dealing with someone like Glenn McGrath you'd expect him to fire in most conditions and then adjust the rest of the attack around that factor.

But we don't have a McGrath at the moment. We may have one on the horizon, maybe we've already got one in the squad, but if we do he's not anywhere near that status yet.

And if he's there already, his surname isn't Johnson, who seems to have a deep-down belief that he's not the once in a lifetime bowler Dennis Lillee described. I suspect a lot of that mental fragility stems from the fact that he came to cricket relatively late, got a dream run through and has been very carefully cultivated on the way through because of what he might be rather than what he actually was at the various stages of an emerging career.

In that regard I suspect Brett Lee got a dream run, based on the fact that his big brother who played for Australia had this kid brother who bowled really quick. News of this fifteen or sixteen year-old tearaway had certainly reached my ears here in Bowen well before he made his first class debut.

Building an attack that'll take twenty wicket in a variety of conditions isn't going to happen overnight, and almost certainly won't come down to a key group of four or five bowlers. Sure, you'd base the attack around a couple of players, and in the absence of people who more or less pick themselves (a Warne or McGrath, for example) I'd be inclined to identify a couple of workhorses who are going to be bowling a lot of overs, and given the locations of the next three Tests (the Gabba, Bellerive and the MCG) I'd pencil in three different quicks for three venues before we start the mix and match bit.

Harris in Brisbane, Hilfenhaus in Hobart and Siddle in Melbourne.

That's enough for the moment. Back tomorrow for a closer look at assembling a side for the two tests against New Zealand while casting an eye towards the Boxing Day Test...